Overview
The mechanics of conviction markets, market lifecycle, and how a planted idea becomes a launched token.
PNL turns idea-stage fundraising into a conviction market. Two camps form around every idea — believers stake SOL on YES, critics stake SOL on NO. When the market closes, the winning side takes the pool. If YES wins, the idea graduates: a token launches on pump.fun with pooled liquidity, the founder earns ongoing royalties, and believers receive token airdrops. If NO wins, critics split the pool — paid for filtering noise.
This page is the 60-second tour. For the math, see Economics. For the on-chain instructions, see On-chain program.
The four-step lifecycle
Anyone posts an idea for 0.015 SOL (~$2 at current SOL price). Title, thesis, target raise, duration. The market opens immediately and accepts SOL stakes.
Believers stake YES. Critics stake NO. Minimum stake 0.01 SOL. A 1.5% trade fee accrues to the platform treasury on every vote. One position per wallet per market.
At expiry, the side with more pooled SOL wins. A 5% completion fee is taken from the pool. The market enters its terminal state.
YES wins → a token launches on pump.fun with pooled liquidity. 65% of token supply airdrops to YES voters proportional to their stake. 33% vests to the founder team. 2% to the platform.
NO wins → 95% of the pool distributes to NO voters proportional to their stake.
Tie or threshold-not-met → full refund. No fees taken.
Market states (in PNL's own vocabulary)
- Living — accepting votes, time remaining
- Bloomed — YES won, token launched on pump.fun
- Withered — NO won, critics paid out
- Closed — window expired without meeting threshold
- Returned — ineligible, stakes refunded
What makes PNL different
| Memecoin launchpad | Standard prediction market | PNL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What you bet on | Existing tokens | Real-world events (elections, sports) | New ideas — does this deserve to launch? |
| What "winning" means | Token goes up | You called the outcome | Your conviction shaped what got built |
| Filter on noise | None | None | NO voters paid to filter |
| Founder upside | Trading fees on a token nobody wanted | n/a | Royalties only on community-validated ideas |
| Skin in the game | Just buyers | One-sided bet | Both believers AND critics stake real SOL |
Next: the math
Economics → covers fees, pricing, and the AMM that determines vote-share. Lifecycle → walks every state transition with diagrams.